The sharp rise in tungsten prices in 2025 was primarily supply-driven. Upstream players leveraged their resource advantage to significantly raise prices, forcing downstream processing enterprises to bear the cost pressure. Some companies depleted earlier inventory reserves or even operated at a loss to maintain operations, accelerating the clearance of inventories across the entire industrial chain.

On the policy front, the state tightened control over mining quotas, cracked down on illegal extraction, and strengthened export restrictions, driving up prices both in terms of supply and market sentiment. Meanwhile, against a backdrop of a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks, capital flowed into the market, amplifying price volatility and resulting in an annual increase of nearly 250%.

This price surge has profoundly reshaped the industrial chain: First, supply dynamics have become intertwined with geopolitics and resource sovereignty considerations. Second, the rapid price hike eliminated many small and medium-sized enterprises with weaker risk resilience, reducing the flexibility of the industrial chain. Third, it overturned the historical price gap between domestic and international markets, with domestic prices rising independently and rapidly in the short term, creating an inverted price relationship between domestic and global markets.

Following this restructuring, the tungsten industry is expected to evolve into a three-tier structure starting in 2026: large resource-based enterprises, large technology-focused enterprises, and small specialized processors targeting high-value niche segments. This shift will significantly increase industry concentration and specialization.